Has Kit Bond Lost his Mojo?

A couple years ago, I would have thought that Kit Bond was as safe as anyone in the Senate (a pretty safe place for incumbents) could be. Except for when he ran against Jay Nixon, he hasn't faced a truly strong democrat in any of his four races. I even voted for him when he ran against Geri Rothman-Serot (one of those annoying St. Louis Democrats who think the world ends outside of the I-270 loop).

Bond has always been a tolerable Republican. Where many Missouri Republicans fit better into the John Ashcroft mold of crazy religious zealots, Kit Bond is a classic country club Republican. Raised at an east-coast prep school, he has dulled his once-sharp intellect with lobbyists' booze and high-living of the type most of us associate with Hugh Hefner and Ted Kennedy. When you meet most Missouri Republicans, you sense that they want to lecture you about how you should go to church and save your soul. When you meet Kit Bond, you sense that he wants to tell you about the strip clubs in DC.

His tolerability goes beyond the fact that he is not a sanctimonious pain in the ass - he has also brought home the bacon like a champ. The political elite of both parties like Kit Bond because he delivers more pork than McGonigles in the week before the American Royal BBQ contest. Politicians of all stripes like spending tax dollars, and Kit Bond has been the secret Santa of Missouri for over 20 years.

But I'm announcing here that Kit Bond will not win another term.

He's up for a race in 2010, and he's lost his mojo. It's been fun, but it's over.

As a member of the minority party, his bacon won't come in slabs anymore. He's going to have to fight for every strip. The Dems who have liked him as Candy Man are going to walk away when he can't deliver. And without the money, why should they tolerate one of only 9 Senators who voted to support torture and one of only two senators who voted to support the conversion of the US Attorney's office into a political attack dog?

On top of that, his own party's going to savage him, because he's not really a Missouri Republican. He's a Deerfield Academy, Princeton, University of Virginia east coast elite who came back to Mexico, Missouri only to launch a political career. He hasn't done the real work of attending all the confederate rallies, cross-burnings and church socials where grassroots work is done in certain Missouri Republican circles. Most of his party suspects that the last time he saw a Bible was when he stumbled across a Gideon's Bible while trying to call the front desk for more ice. He's not really one of them.

Bond may wind up not even trying. He'll be 71, and he's not going to be having much fun as a non-influential minority member of the Senate for the next 3 years. When the lobbyists dial down their level of attention, Kit Bond is likely to figure out that he can have more fun elsewhere, without the occasional scrutiny of the press. It might even be worth paying for his own Alaskan junkets.

Gonemild says that Kit Bond is finished in 2010.