Can Kinder/Page Poll Become Meaningful?

Sam Page is, as I've written several times before, a new kind of candidate for Missouri Lieutenant Governor. Unbeknownst to most of us, the Lieutenant Governor position has real duties, and many of those duties would be better served with an experienced physician fulfilling them. Who would you rather have working on affordable prescriptions for seniors - a do-nothing political hack or a bright, sincere young doctor with a passion for public service? It's kind of like having Dr. Carter from ER running against Mayor Quimby from The Simpsons. The choice is clear.

Missouri appears ready to choose Dr. Page. A recent poll shows that Sam Page, in a race against an incumbent Republican, has jumped out to a slim lead, despite being heavily outspent by an entrenched Republican with better name recognition.

The key to understanding the poll, though, is not in focusing on Sam Page's surprising 38/37 lead. The key is in paying attention to the 23% who are undecided. That is where the race will be decided, and money will be absolutely critical in helping those people make the right decision. If you want to invest in a statewide campaign where your dollars will make the biggest difference in chasing a scandal-racked Rove Republican from office, PLEASE visit this page and make as large a donation as you can afford.

It would be a shame if this encouraging poll turned out to be a false positive . . .

The Sermon Saga - Why I Fear Disillusionment with Obama

Let's get one thing clear up front - I am 100% behind the Democratic nominee for President, be it Clinton or Obama. I believe either will be an effective president, and can begin the process of rebuilding our country's standing domestically and internationally after the debacle of the past 7 3/4 years. I lean toward Clinton, but that is solely because of my opinion that she is the more likely to win the general election.

The past week demonstrates that Obama's support is like a cumulus cloud - impressive to see, but vaporous in nature.

It all started with reports about his pastor and "spiritual advisor" of his campaign spouting off with racially charged negativity more fitting on a joke blog than on a pulpit. Obama fumbled his first responses to the criticism, and it blossomed into a full-blown media event, complete with incendiary video and hand-wringing right-wingers shocked, simply shocked, that a black man could find something to criticize in this enlightened land.

It was all so stupid and manufactured. Republicans get in bed with people who claim God launched Katrina as a terrorist attack on us, and nobody raises an eyebrow. But if a loud, scary black preacher says something to provoke some thought and wake up the back pews, we have ourselves a genuine crisis.

But, sadly enough, it's working. For the first time in a month, Clinton has a statistically significant lead over Obama in national polls. Closer to home, the flap has caused Obama's margin of loss to McCain to mushroom from 6% to 14%.

The point is that when we are able to look at Obama as a fresh-faced, energetic symbol of our hopes and dreams for a new America, he's a winner. But when he turns out to be a real person with crazy friends and questionable decisions, his support dissipates rapidly. If people are supporting Obama because of an illusion that he will single-handedly transform us into a united, peace-loving, tolerant nation, I can assure you that the Republicans will supply us with plenty of DISillusion before November.

If a little videotape of a preacher caused an 8% swing in Obama's performance in Missouri, what will be left after Karl Rove gets finished with him?

And what will that do to the Democratic party's gains in Missouri?

Jacking with the Pollsters

I've received a bunch of calls lately from political pollsters, mostly from the Republican side. While it would be easy to explain to them that I will not be voting in the Republican primary on Tuesday, or to simply hang up, I would be missing out on a real opportunity to confuse the issues for the "experts" on the Republican side.

Somewhere, the Republican strategists are pondering why a strong Huckabee supporter is also strongly pro-gay marriage. Why is a portion of the "leaning Romney" electorate mostly concerned with Second Amendment rights? And McCain is apparently the choice of those who want immediate deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

Republican pollsters are welcome to call me anytime they want, and I promise to answer their questions.